U.S. food prices are moving at very different speeds depending on where food is purchased and which category is tracked. The latest USDA figures show food-at-home prices 2.2% higher in August 2026 than a year earlier, while food-away-from-home prices were up 3.4%. The category detail matters for meal planning: beef, vegetables, sugar and sweets, beverages, and coffee were all notably different from eggs and dairy.
Contents
- Latest U.S. food inflation snapshot
- Historical annual food inflation turning points
- Grocery versus restaurant price outlook
- 2026 food category inflation forecasts
- January 2026 grocery category price changes
- Farm-to-retail food price signals
Latest U.S. food inflation snapshot
The USDA’s Food Price Outlook - Summary Findings reports separate measures for food bought at stores and food purchased from restaurants or other food-service providers. That distinction is important when setting a meal budget.
From July to August 2026, the food-away-from-home CPI rose 0.3%. Through August, it was 3.4% higher than in August 2025. The food-at-home CPI was unchanged from July to August 2026 and was 2.2% higher year over year. In other words, the latest monthly movement was flat for grocery food but positive for food away from home.
Individual grocery categories did not move together. Retail egg prices rose 3.5% from July to August 2026, yet they were 23.0% lower than in August 2025. Retail fats-and-oils prices rose 1.4% over the same month. Across the 15 food-at-home categories tracked by USDA, seven fell in price from July to August, seven increased, and one was unchanged.
USDA’s September 2026 release forecast all-food prices to rise 2.9% in 2026, with a reported forecast interval of 2.5% to 3.2%. For 2027, the all-food forecast was a 2.0% increase, with a much wider interval of -2.7% to 7.0%. These are calendar-year average price forecasts, not guarantees for a particular store, month, or household.
For groceries specifically, USDA forecast food-at-home prices to rise 2.4% in 2026. That is below the 2.6% 20-year historical average cited in the same release. A broad average can still conceal sharp changes in individual ingredients, so a meal plan built around category-level data may be more useful than one based only on the all-food number.
Historical annual food inflation turning points
The annual figures below compare calendar-year average prices. They show why a current moderate rate does not mean every household has experienced the same cumulative change.
| Calendar year | All food | Food at home | Food away from home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| 2022 | 9.9% | 11.4% | 7.7% |
| 2023 | — | 5.0% | 7.1% |
| 2024 | 2.3% | 1.2% | 4.1% |
| 2025 | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.8% |
USDA identifies the 9.9% increase in all-food prices in 2022 as the fastest annual increase since 1979. Food-at-home prices rose 11.4% that year, while food-away-from-home prices rose 7.7%. The grocery increase was therefore larger than the restaurant increase during that unusually high-inflation year.
The pace changed afterward. Food-at-home prices rose 5.0% in 2023, compared with a 7.1% increase for food away from home. In 2024, all-food prices rose 2.3%, food at home rose 1.2%, and food away from home rose 4.1%. In 2025, all-food prices rose 2.9%; food at home rose 2.3%, below its 2.6% historical average, while food away from home rose 3.8%, above its 3.5% historical average.
The 2020 figures provide another reference point: all-food prices rose 3.4%, food-at-home prices rose 3.5%, and food-away-from-home prices rose 3.4%. These annual measures should be read as historical price changes, not as estimates that have been independently rechecked here.
Grocery versus restaurant price outlook
USDA forecast 2026 food-away-from-home prices to rise 3.5%, equal to the 20-year historical average. The reported 2026 forecast interval was 3.3% to 3.8%. For a household deciding between cooking and buying prepared meals, this indicates a higher expected annual increase for restaurant and food-service prices than for groceries, whose 2026 forecast was 2.4%.
The 2027 outlook was lower for both measures, but the uncertainty ranges were broad. USDA forecast food-at-home prices to rise 1.8%, with a forecast interval from -5.0% to 9.2%. Food-away-from-home prices were forecast to rise 2.6%, with an interval from 0.2% to 5.1%.
| Measure | 2026 forecast | 2026 interval | 2027 forecast | 2027 interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food at home | 2.4% | Not supplied here | 1.8% | -5.0% to 9.2% |
| Food away from home | 3.5% | 3.3% to 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.2% to 5.1% |
Forecast intervals describe uncertainty around the USDA estimates. They should not be treated as a promise that a particular grocery basket will fall within the range. A household’s actual result depends on its mix of meat, produce, beverages, staples, prepared foods, and restaurant purchases.
2026 food category inflation forecasts
The category forecasts show a wide spread beneath the 2.4% food-at-home average. Beef and veal prices were forecast to rise 9.4% in 2026, with a 7.4% to 11.6% interval. Pork was forecast to rise 1.2%, with an interval of -0.1% to 2.6%, while poultry was forecast to rise 1.0%, with an interval of 0.0% to 2.1%.
Eggs were the strongest downward forecast: retail egg prices were forecast to fall 29.4%, with a -32.9% to -25.2% interval. That forecast is consistent in direction with the August year-over-year decline in retail egg prices, although the forecast and the monthly observation are different measures and periods.
Produce and pantry categories were forecast to increase at different rates. Fresh-fruit prices were forecast to rise 2.5%, with a 1.5% to 3.7% interval. Fresh-vegetable prices were forecast to rise 5.7%, with a 4.3% to 7.2% interval. Sugar-and-sweets prices were forecast to rise 6.6%, with a 5.8% to 7.4% interval. Nonalcoholic-beverage prices were forecast to rise 4.2%, with a 3.5% to 5.0% interval.
| 2026 category | Forecast change | Reported interval |
|---|---|---|
| Beef and veal | 9.4% | 7.4% to 11.6% |
| Fresh vegetables | 5.7% | 4.3% to 7.2% |
| Sugar and sweets | 6.6% | 5.8% to 7.4% |
| Nonalcoholic beverages | 4.2% | 3.5% to 5.0% |
| Fresh fruit | 2.5% | 1.5% to 3.7% |
| Pork | 1.2% | -0.1% to 2.6% |
| Poultry | 1.0% | 0.0% to 2.1% |
| Retail eggs | -29.4% | -32.9% to -25.2% |
USDA also forecast farm-level cattle prices to rise 7.1% in 2026, with a 3.8% to 10.9% interval, and wholesale beef prices to rise 8.5%, with a 3.0% to 15.0% interval. At the farm level, egg prices were forecast to fall 79.2%, with a -82.8% to -72.1% interval, while farm-level milk prices were forecast to fall 9.4%, with a -14.2% to -3.8% interval. Farm, wholesale, and retail forecasts are distinct and should not be substituted for one another.
January 2026 grocery category price changes
The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M01 Results reports CPI-U, U.S. city average, unadjusted 12-month changes for January 2026. These figures are year-over-year comparisons through January, not monthly changes.
The January 2026 food-at-home CPI was 2.1% higher than in January 2025. Cereals and bakery products rose 3.1% year over year. Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs as a group rose 2.2%, but the components varied sharply: beef and veal rose 15.0%, uncooked ground beef rose 17.2%, pork rose 1.4%, and poultry rose 1.6%.
Fish and seafood prices rose 5.1%. Eggs were 34.2% lower than a year earlier. Dairy and related products were 0.3% lower, while fruits and vegetables were 0.8% higher.
Coffee was another high-change category. Coffee prices rose 18.3% year over year in January 2026, and instant coffee prices rose 26.1%. For meal planning, these numbers illustrate why a category-specific substitution—such as changing a coffee format or rotating protein choices—can matter even when the overall grocery index is near 2%.
Farm-to-retail food price signals
USDA’s Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials - Food Prices and Spending describes how a typical consumer food dollar was distributed in 2024. Wholesale and retail trade together received 20.1 cents: 6.3 cents went to wholesale and 13.8 cents to retail. Food services received 38.6 cents, and food processing received 16.1 cents.
The producer-side groups accounted for smaller shares of that typical dollar: crops received 2.5 cents, livestock received 3.3 cents, and forestry, fishing, and agricultural services received 0.9 cents. These are food-dollar shares, not inflation rates, and they describe different parts of the food system.
Price movements can also vary before reaching the store. USDA reports that the annual average Producer Price Index for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs changed by more than 10% ten times from 2006 through 2025. The largest annual-average change in the retail food CPI occurred in 2022, when food prices rose 9.9%.
For a meal-planning budget, the practical reading is to track the categories used most often and separate grocery prices from restaurant prices. The published U.S. figures show a moderate overall outlook alongside much larger movements in particular foods, including beef, eggs, vegetables, sugar and sweets, beverages, and coffee.